FORecasting Solar Particle Events and Flares (FORSPEF) Tool

FORSPEF

The prototype FORSPEF (FORecasting Solar Particle Events and Flares) System is now available. This system developed and is operated by the Space Research and Technology Group of the Institute for Astronomy, Astrophysics, Space Applications & Remote Sensing (IAASARS), National Observatory of Athens (NOA) with funding from ESA's Technology Research Programme (ESA Contract No. 4000109641/13/NL/AK).


The prototype system can be accessed here.

The system combines solar flare forecasting with an historical Solar Particle Event (SPE) catalogue in order to give long-term predictions of possible radiation flux enhancements of solar origin in the near-Earth environment. The three-tier system provides forecasts of solar flares, warnings of SPE onset and predictions of SPE duration and peak flux levels for three energy levels (>30, >60 & >100 MeV).
FORSPEF forecast processing logic

The forecast mode attempts to provide long horizon time warnings of flaring and derived SPE probability based on this. A second mode of operation is the nowcast mode which provides updated alerts and predictions based on observed solar flaring and eruptions (coronal mass ejections) allowing for an improvement in the onset forecast and assessment of likely duration and peak flux.

FORSPEF nowcast SEP probability
Initially developed at the behest of the launcher directorate at ESA, concerned with enhanced single event effect rates in components, the FORSPEF system has a far broader appeal including spacecraft operators, human spaceflight, space weather forecasters and scientists. Data are presented in a set of different graphical displays to suit the needs of a variety of users. More details on how the system works are available through the help tab of the web portal. Future developments may be foreseen and comments/suggestions are very welcome.
FORSPEF nowcast SEP characteristics prediction
The Institute for Astronomy, Astrophysics, Space Applications and Remote Sensing (IAASARS)
The project manager for this activity was Dr Anastasios Anastasiadis.

The ESA Technical Officer was Piers Jiggens.

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